Abstract
Purpose. The aim of this study was to investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) can be considered a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in malignant mesothelioma. Materials and Methods. Individual data were collected from 15 Cancer and Leukemia Group B (615 patients) and 2 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (101 patients) phase II trials. The effects of 5 risk factors for OS and PFS, including age, histology, performance status (PS), white blood cell count, and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk score, were used in the analysis. Individual-level surrogacy was assessed by Kendall’s tau through a Clayton bivariate Copula survival (CBCS) model. Summary-level surrogacy was evaluated via the association between logarithms of the hazard ratio (log HR)—log HROS and log HRPFS—measured in R2 from a weighted least-square (WLS) regression model and the CBCSmodel. Results. The median PFS for all patients was 3.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8–3.5 months) and the median OS was 7.2 months (95% CI, 6.5–8.0 months). Moderate correlations between PFS and OS were observed across all risk factors at the individual level, with Kendall’s tau ranging from 0.46 to 0.47. The summary-level surrogacy varied among risk factors. The Copula R2 ranged from0.51 for PS to 0.78 for histology. The WLS R2 ranged from 0.26 for EORTC and PS to 0.67 for age. Conclusions. The analyses demonstrated low to moderate individual-level surrogacy between PFS and OS. At the summary level, the surrogacy between PFS and OS varied significantly across different risk factors. With a short postprogression survival and a moderate correlation between PFS and OS, there is no evidence that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in malignant mesothelioma.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 189-198 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Oncologist |
| Volume | 22 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Feb 10 2017 |
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Keywords
- Malignant mesothelioma
- Overall survival
- Progression-free survival
- Risk factors
- Surrogate endpoint
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Oncology
- Cancer Research
Cite this
Validation of progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival inmalignant mesothelioma : Analysis of cancer and leukemia group B and north central cancer treatment group (Alliance) trials. / Wang, Xiaofei; Wang, Xiaoyi; Hodgson, Lydia; George, Stephen L.; Sargent, Daniel J.; Foster, Nate R.; Ganti, Apar Kishor P; Stinchcombe, Thomas E.; Crawford, Jeffrey; Kratzke, Robert; Adjei, Alex A.; Kindler, Hedy L.; Vokes, Everett E.; Pang, Herbert.
In: Oncologist, Vol. 22, No. 2, 10.02.2017, p. 189-198.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Validation of progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival inmalignant mesothelioma
T2 - Analysis of cancer and leukemia group B and north central cancer treatment group (Alliance) trials
AU - Wang, Xiaofei
AU - Wang, Xiaoyi
AU - Hodgson, Lydia
AU - George, Stephen L.
AU - Sargent, Daniel J.
AU - Foster, Nate R.
AU - Ganti, Apar Kishor P
AU - Stinchcombe, Thomas E.
AU - Crawford, Jeffrey
AU - Kratzke, Robert
AU - Adjei, Alex A.
AU - Kindler, Hedy L.
AU - Vokes, Everett E.
AU - Pang, Herbert
PY - 2017/2/10
Y1 - 2017/2/10
N2 - Purpose. The aim of this study was to investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) can be considered a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in malignant mesothelioma. Materials and Methods. Individual data were collected from 15 Cancer and Leukemia Group B (615 patients) and 2 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (101 patients) phase II trials. The effects of 5 risk factors for OS and PFS, including age, histology, performance status (PS), white blood cell count, and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk score, were used in the analysis. Individual-level surrogacy was assessed by Kendall’s tau through a Clayton bivariate Copula survival (CBCS) model. Summary-level surrogacy was evaluated via the association between logarithms of the hazard ratio (log HR)—log HROS and log HRPFS—measured in R2 from a weighted least-square (WLS) regression model and the CBCSmodel. Results. The median PFS for all patients was 3.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8–3.5 months) and the median OS was 7.2 months (95% CI, 6.5–8.0 months). Moderate correlations between PFS and OS were observed across all risk factors at the individual level, with Kendall’s tau ranging from 0.46 to 0.47. The summary-level surrogacy varied among risk factors. The Copula R2 ranged from0.51 for PS to 0.78 for histology. The WLS R2 ranged from 0.26 for EORTC and PS to 0.67 for age. Conclusions. The analyses demonstrated low to moderate individual-level surrogacy between PFS and OS. At the summary level, the surrogacy between PFS and OS varied significantly across different risk factors. With a short postprogression survival and a moderate correlation between PFS and OS, there is no evidence that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in malignant mesothelioma.
AB - Purpose. The aim of this study was to investigate whether progression-free survival (PFS) can be considered a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in malignant mesothelioma. Materials and Methods. Individual data were collected from 15 Cancer and Leukemia Group B (615 patients) and 2 North Central Cancer Treatment Group (101 patients) phase II trials. The effects of 5 risk factors for OS and PFS, including age, histology, performance status (PS), white blood cell count, and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk score, were used in the analysis. Individual-level surrogacy was assessed by Kendall’s tau through a Clayton bivariate Copula survival (CBCS) model. Summary-level surrogacy was evaluated via the association between logarithms of the hazard ratio (log HR)—log HROS and log HRPFS—measured in R2 from a weighted least-square (WLS) regression model and the CBCSmodel. Results. The median PFS for all patients was 3.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8–3.5 months) and the median OS was 7.2 months (95% CI, 6.5–8.0 months). Moderate correlations between PFS and OS were observed across all risk factors at the individual level, with Kendall’s tau ranging from 0.46 to 0.47. The summary-level surrogacy varied among risk factors. The Copula R2 ranged from0.51 for PS to 0.78 for histology. The WLS R2 ranged from 0.26 for EORTC and PS to 0.67 for age. Conclusions. The analyses demonstrated low to moderate individual-level surrogacy between PFS and OS. At the summary level, the surrogacy between PFS and OS varied significantly across different risk factors. With a short postprogression survival and a moderate correlation between PFS and OS, there is no evidence that PFS is a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in malignant mesothelioma.
KW - Malignant mesothelioma
KW - Overall survival
KW - Progression-free survival
KW - Risk factors
KW - Surrogate endpoint
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85014542806&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85014542806&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1634/theoncologist.2016-0121
DO - 10.1634/theoncologist.2016-0121
M3 - Article
C2 - 28188257
AN - SCOPUS:85014542806
VL - 22
SP - 189
EP - 198
JO - Oncologist
JF - Oncologist
SN - 1083-7159
IS - 2
ER -