Using Simulation to Estimate and Forecast Transportation Metrics: Lessons Learned

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

In recent years transportation planners and engineers have begun to utilize traffic simulation models to estimate and forecast new transportation operations and reliability metrics. For example, the Highway Capacity Manual, Sixth Edition: A Guide for Multimodal Mobility Analysis (HCM-6) has recently adopted 1) passenger car estimation methods that are based on the microsimulation model VISSIM, and 2) urban arterial reliability estimation methods that are based on a Monte Carlos simulation technique. The advantage to simulation methods is that the metrics, which may be based on central tendency (e.g. mean, median), dispersion (variance, percentile), or even a combination of other metrics (e.g. reliability index), may be easily calculated and/or estimated. For this reason, the number of metrics developed and used has continued to increase. As one example, many researchers over the past decade have focused on developing and estimating metrics related to network reliability and resilience. However, it is an open research question on when and where these simulation approaches are appropriate to use. This paper will discuss a number of issues related to using simulation for estimating transportation metrics with a focus on model assumptions and model calibration. Specific examples from realworld test beds will be provided. Lastly, the paper will provide an overview of lessons learned and areas of future research.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationLecture Notes in Civil Engineering
PublisherSpringer
Pages23-33
Number of pages11
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2020

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Volume54
ISSN (Print)2366-2557
ISSN (Electronic)2366-2565

Fingerprint

Passenger cars
Calibration
Engineers
Monte Carlo simulation

Keywords

  • Calibration
  • Simulation
  • Transportation Metrics
  • Validation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering

Cite this

Rilett, L. R. (2020). Using Simulation to Estimate and Forecast Transportation Metrics: Lessons Learned. In Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering (pp. 23-33). (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 54). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0802-8_3

Using Simulation to Estimate and Forecast Transportation Metrics : Lessons Learned. / Rilett, L. R.

Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering. Springer, 2020. p. 23-33 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering; Vol. 54).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Rilett, LR 2020, Using Simulation to Estimate and Forecast Transportation Metrics: Lessons Learned. in Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol. 54, Springer, pp. 23-33. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0802-8_3
Rilett LR. Using Simulation to Estimate and Forecast Transportation Metrics: Lessons Learned. In Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering. Springer. 2020. p. 23-33. (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0802-8_3
Rilett, L. R. / Using Simulation to Estimate and Forecast Transportation Metrics : Lessons Learned. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering. Springer, 2020. pp. 23-33 (Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering).
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