Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods

Feng Mei Yao, Peng Cheng Qin, Jia Hua Zhang, Er Da Lin, Vijendra Boken

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

27 Scopus citations


Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture. Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties, impeding effective decision-making to climate change. On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels, this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection, the assessment process, and the crop models linking to climate models. Meanwhile, techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced, and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out. Finally, in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture, improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)729-737
Number of pages9
JournalChinese Science Bulletin
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - Mar 1 2011



  • agriculture
  • climate change
  • impact assessment
  • model simulation
  • uncertainty

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General

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