Trends in malaria in Odisha, India-An analysis of the 2003-2013 time-series data from the national vector borne disease control program

Ashirbad Pradhan, Anita Anasuya, Madan Mohan Pradhan, A. K. Kavitha, Priyanka Kar, Krushna Chandra Sahoo, Pinaki Panigrahi, Ambarish Dutta

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Background: Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Methods: Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003-2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003-2013 and 2014-2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003-2007) and post-intensification (2009-2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. Results: The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003-2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009-2013 as compared to that in 2003-2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere0149126
JournalPLoS One
Volume11
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2016

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disease control programs
Disease control
Disease Vectors
vector-borne diseases
malaria
Malaria
India
Time series
time series analysis
Blood
Time series analysis
incidence
Incidence
blood
stakeholders
interviews

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

Pradhan, A., Anasuya, A., Pradhan, M. M., Kavitha, A. K., Kar, P., Sahoo, K. C., ... Dutta, A. (2016). Trends in malaria in Odisha, India-An analysis of the 2003-2013 time-series data from the national vector borne disease control program. PLoS One, 11(2), [e0149126]. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149126

Trends in malaria in Odisha, India-An analysis of the 2003-2013 time-series data from the national vector borne disease control program. / Pradhan, Ashirbad; Anasuya, Anita; Pradhan, Madan Mohan; Kavitha, A. K.; Kar, Priyanka; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Panigrahi, Pinaki; Dutta, Ambarish.

In: PLoS One, Vol. 11, No. 2, e0149126, 01.02.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Pradhan, A, Anasuya, A, Pradhan, MM, Kavitha, AK, Kar, P, Sahoo, KC, Panigrahi, P & Dutta, A 2016, 'Trends in malaria in Odisha, India-An analysis of the 2003-2013 time-series data from the national vector borne disease control program', PLoS One, vol. 11, no. 2, e0149126. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149126
Pradhan, Ashirbad ; Anasuya, Anita ; Pradhan, Madan Mohan ; Kavitha, A. K. ; Kar, Priyanka ; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra ; Panigrahi, Pinaki ; Dutta, Ambarish. / Trends in malaria in Odisha, India-An analysis of the 2003-2013 time-series data from the national vector borne disease control program. In: PLoS One. 2016 ; Vol. 11, No. 2.
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abstract = "Background: Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Methods: Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003-2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003-2013 and 2014-2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003-2007) and post-intensification (2009-2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. Results: The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003-2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95{\%} CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25{\%} to 11.77{\%}. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009-2013 as compared to that in 2003-2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200{\%} greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence",
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AU - Kavitha, A. K.

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