Statistical modeling of types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents in the United States

Amirfarrokh Iranitalab, Aemal J Khattak, Eric C Thompson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Rail incidents involving release of crude oil from train tank cars is a safety concern. The objectives of this study are identification and quantification of the impacts of different factors on types and consequences of crude oil release from trains, and investigation of the impacts of types and consequences of release on the resulting costs. Two separate multinomial models for types of release (gas dispersion, spillage or both) and consequences of release (fire, explosion or none), and one joint multinomial model were estimated using 10-year crude oil release data. Non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, lower probability of fire and explosion, and lower costs. Tank car head puncture resistance system and tank car insulation increased the probability of gas dispersion. Increase in quantity of spillage, increased the probability of fire and explosion, significantly. Robust linear regression models captured the effects of types and consequences of release on post-release costs. While sufficient evidence was not found regarding a relationship between types of release and costs, fires and explosions significantly increased the costs. These findings can assist decision-making regarding safety improvement of rail-based crude oil transportation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)232-239
Number of pages8
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume185
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2019

Fingerprint

Tank cars
Rails
Crude oil
Explosions
Fires
Costs
Gases
Linear regression
Insulation
Decision making

Keywords

  • Explosion
  • Fire
  • Gas dispersion
  • Hazmat transportation
  • Multinomial logit
  • Robust regression

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Cite this

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title = "Statistical modeling of types and consequences of rail-based crude oil release incidents in the United States",
abstract = "Rail incidents involving release of crude oil from train tank cars is a safety concern. The objectives of this study are identification and quantification of the impacts of different factors on types and consequences of crude oil release from trains, and investigation of the impacts of types and consequences of release on the resulting costs. Two separate multinomial models for types of release (gas dispersion, spillage or both) and consequences of release (fire, explosion or none), and one joint multinomial model were estimated using 10-year crude oil release data. Non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, lower probability of fire and explosion, and lower costs. Tank car head puncture resistance system and tank car insulation increased the probability of gas dispersion. Increase in quantity of spillage, increased the probability of fire and explosion, significantly. Robust linear regression models captured the effects of types and consequences of release on post-release costs. While sufficient evidence was not found regarding a relationship between types of release and costs, fires and explosions significantly increased the costs. These findings can assist decision-making regarding safety improvement of rail-based crude oil transportation.",
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author = "Amirfarrokh Iranitalab and Khattak, {Aemal J} and Thompson, {Eric C}",
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N2 - Rail incidents involving release of crude oil from train tank cars is a safety concern. The objectives of this study are identification and quantification of the impacts of different factors on types and consequences of crude oil release from trains, and investigation of the impacts of types and consequences of release on the resulting costs. Two separate multinomial models for types of release (gas dispersion, spillage or both) and consequences of release (fire, explosion or none), and one joint multinomial model were estimated using 10-year crude oil release data. Non-accident releases were associated with higher probability of gas dispersion, lower probability of fire and explosion, and lower costs. Tank car head puncture resistance system and tank car insulation increased the probability of gas dispersion. Increase in quantity of spillage, increased the probability of fire and explosion, significantly. Robust linear regression models captured the effects of types and consequences of release on post-release costs. While sufficient evidence was not found regarding a relationship between types of release and costs, fires and explosions significantly increased the costs. These findings can assist decision-making regarding safety improvement of rail-based crude oil transportation.

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