Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables

Nephi A. Walton, Mollie R. Poynton, Per H. Gesteland, Christopher G Maloney, Catherine Staes, Julio C. Facelli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks. Methods. Nave Bayes (NB) classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008. Results. NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley. Conclusions. We demonstrate that Nave Bayes (NB) classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number68
JournalBMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 4 2010

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Respiratory Syncytial Viruses
Weather
Disease Outbreaks
Bronchiolitis
Pediatric Hospitals
Salts
Temperature
International Classification of Diseases
Censuses
Lakes
Delivery of Health Care

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health Policy
  • Health Informatics

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Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables. / Walton, Nephi A.; Poynton, Mollie R.; Gesteland, Per H.; Maloney, Christopher G; Staes, Catherine; Facelli, Julio C.

In: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol. 10, No. 1, 68, 04.11.2010.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Walton, Nephi A. ; Poynton, Mollie R. ; Gesteland, Per H. ; Maloney, Christopher G ; Staes, Catherine ; Facelli, Julio C. / Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables. In: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making. 2010 ; Vol. 10, No. 1.
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