Integrating complex system dynamics of pandemic influenza with a multi-criteria decision making model for evaluating public health strategies

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools. These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread. However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers' preferences into decision-making processes. In this paper, a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak. A multi-criteria decision making framework, an Analytical Hierarchy Process model, is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a table-top exercise environment.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)319-339
Number of pages21
JournalJournal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering
Volume22
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2013

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Public health
Large scale systems
Decision making
Decision support systems
Dynamic models

Keywords

  • Multi-criteria decision making
  • analytical hierarchy process
  • complex systems
  • pandemic influenza modeling
  • preparedness exercises
  • public health

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Information Systems

Cite this

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title = "Integrating complex system dynamics of pandemic influenza with a multi-criteria decision making model for evaluating public health strategies",
abstract = "Recent developments in computational sciences and computer modeling have allowed emergency preparedness exercises to include simulation models as supporting tools. These simulation models are generally built for predicting temporal and geographic patterns of disease spread. However sole use of simulation models in exercise design falls short in terms of incorporating policy decision makers' preferences into decision-making processes. In this paper, a general framework for exercising public health preparedness plans with a decision support system is presented to integrate estimation of key epidemiological parameters with a system dynamics model of an outbreak. A multi-criteria decision making framework, an Analytical Hierarchy Process model, is then developed and integrated with the simulation model to help public health policy makers prioritize their response goals and evaluate mitigation strategies in a table-top exercise environment.",
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