Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines

Ozgur Araz, Alison Galvani, Lauren A. Meyers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Pandemic influenza is an international public health concern. In light of the persistent threat of H5N1 avian influenza and the recent pandemic of A/H1N1swine influenza outbreak, public health agencies around the globe are continuously revising their preparedness plans. The A/H1N1 pandemic of 2009 demonstrated that influenza activity and severity might vary considerably among age groups and locations, and the distribution of an effective influenza vaccine may be significantly delayed and staggered. Thus, pandemic influenza vaccine distribution policies should be tailored to the demographic and spatial structures of communities. Here, we introduce a bi-criteria decision-making framework for vaccine distribution policies that is based on a geospatial and demographically-structured model of pandemic influenza transmission within and between counties of Arizona in the Unites States. Based on data from the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic, the policy predicted to reduce overall attack rate most effectively is prioritizing counties expected to experience the latest epidemic waves (a policy that may be politically untenable). However, when we consider reductions in both the attack rate and the waiting period for those seeking vaccines, the widely adopted pro rata policy (distributing according to population size) is also predicted to be an effective strategy.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)175-187
Number of pages13
JournalHealth Care Management Science
Volume15
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 22 2012

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Influenza Vaccines
Pandemics
Human Influenza
Vaccines
Public Health
Influenza in Birds
Population Density
Disease Outbreaks
Decision Making
Age Groups
Demography

Keywords

  • Mathematical modeling
  • Pandemic influenza
  • Policy-decision making
  • Vaccine distribution

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine (miscellaneous)
  • Health Professions(all)

Cite this

Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines. / Araz, Ozgur; Galvani, Alison; Meyers, Lauren A.

In: Health Care Management Science, Vol. 15, No. 3, 22.05.2012, p. 175-187.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Araz, Ozgur ; Galvani, Alison ; Meyers, Lauren A. / Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines. In: Health Care Management Science. 2012 ; Vol. 15, No. 3. pp. 175-187.
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