Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump

Andrew J. Dowdle, Randall E. Adkins, Karen Sebold, Jarred Cuellar

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996-2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)691-695
Number of pages5
JournalPS - Political Science and Politics
Volume49
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 1 2016

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Sociology and Political Science

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