Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios: Part I. The uncertainty due to spatial scale

L. O. Mearns, W. Easterling, C. Hays, D. Marx

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

112 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We investigated the effect of two different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on crop yields simulated by the EPIC crop model for corn, soybean, and wheat, in the central Great Plains of the United States. The effect of climate change alone was investigated in Part I. In Part II (Easterling et al., 2001) we considered the effects of CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation in addition to climate change. The scenarios were formed from five years of control and 2 × CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and the same from an Australian coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM), which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model runs. We also investigated the effect of two different spatial resolutions of soil input parameters to the crop models. We found that for corn and soybean in the eastern part of the study area, significantly different mean yield changes were calculated depending on the scenario used. Changes in simulated dryland wheat yields in the western areas were very similar, regardless of the scale of the scenario. The spatial scale of soils had a strong effect on the spatial variance and pattern of yields across the study area, but less effect on the mean aggregated yields. We investigated what aspects of the differences in the scenarios were most important for explaining the different simulated yield responses. For instance, precipitation changes in June were most important for corn and soybean in the eastern CSIRO grid boxes. We establish the spatial scale of climate change scenarios as an important uncertainty for climate change impacts analysis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)131-172
Number of pages42
JournalClimatic Change
Volume51
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 15 2001

Fingerprint

Climate change
climate change
Crops
soybean
maize
Soils
Climate models
wheat
crop
yield response
effect
comparison
Uncertainty
Boundary conditions
crop yield
regional climate
general circulation model
climate modeling
spatial resolution
boundary condition

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios : Part I. The uncertainty due to spatial scale. / Mearns, L. O.; Easterling, W.; Hays, C.; Marx, D.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 51, No. 2, 15.11.2001, p. 131-172.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{059d328eaced419698475edb6b4d592e,
title = "Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios: Part I. The uncertainty due to spatial scale",
abstract = "We investigated the effect of two different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on crop yields simulated by the EPIC crop model for corn, soybean, and wheat, in the central Great Plains of the United States. The effect of climate change alone was investigated in Part I. In Part II (Easterling et al., 2001) we considered the effects of CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation in addition to climate change. The scenarios were formed from five years of control and 2 × CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and the same from an Australian coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM), which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model runs. We also investigated the effect of two different spatial resolutions of soil input parameters to the crop models. We found that for corn and soybean in the eastern part of the study area, significantly different mean yield changes were calculated depending on the scenario used. Changes in simulated dryland wheat yields in the western areas were very similar, regardless of the scale of the scenario. The spatial scale of soils had a strong effect on the spatial variance and pattern of yields across the study area, but less effect on the mean aggregated yields. We investigated what aspects of the differences in the scenarios were most important for explaining the different simulated yield responses. For instance, precipitation changes in June were most important for corn and soybean in the eastern CSIRO grid boxes. We establish the spatial scale of climate change scenarios as an important uncertainty for climate change impacts analysis.",
author = "Mearns, {L. O.} and W. Easterling and C. Hays and D. Marx",
year = "2001",
month = "11",
day = "15",
doi = "10.1023/A:1012297314857",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "51",
pages = "131--172",
journal = "Climatic Change",
issn = "0165-0009",
publisher = "Springer Netherlands",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios

T2 - Part I. The uncertainty due to spatial scale

AU - Mearns, L. O.

AU - Easterling, W.

AU - Hays, C.

AU - Marx, D.

PY - 2001/11/15

Y1 - 2001/11/15

N2 - We investigated the effect of two different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on crop yields simulated by the EPIC crop model for corn, soybean, and wheat, in the central Great Plains of the United States. The effect of climate change alone was investigated in Part I. In Part II (Easterling et al., 2001) we considered the effects of CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation in addition to climate change. The scenarios were formed from five years of control and 2 × CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and the same from an Australian coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM), which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model runs. We also investigated the effect of two different spatial resolutions of soil input parameters to the crop models. We found that for corn and soybean in the eastern part of the study area, significantly different mean yield changes were calculated depending on the scenario used. Changes in simulated dryland wheat yields in the western areas were very similar, regardless of the scale of the scenario. The spatial scale of soils had a strong effect on the spatial variance and pattern of yields across the study area, but less effect on the mean aggregated yields. We investigated what aspects of the differences in the scenarios were most important for explaining the different simulated yield responses. For instance, precipitation changes in June were most important for corn and soybean in the eastern CSIRO grid boxes. We establish the spatial scale of climate change scenarios as an important uncertainty for climate change impacts analysis.

AB - We investigated the effect of two different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on crop yields simulated by the EPIC crop model for corn, soybean, and wheat, in the central Great Plains of the United States. The effect of climate change alone was investigated in Part I. In Part II (Easterling et al., 2001) we considered the effects of CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation in addition to climate change. The scenarios were formed from five years of control and 2 × CO2 runs of a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM) and the same from an Australian coarse resolution general circulation model (GCM), which provided the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional model runs. We also investigated the effect of two different spatial resolutions of soil input parameters to the crop models. We found that for corn and soybean in the eastern part of the study area, significantly different mean yield changes were calculated depending on the scenario used. Changes in simulated dryland wheat yields in the western areas were very similar, regardless of the scale of the scenario. The spatial scale of soils had a strong effect on the spatial variance and pattern of yields across the study area, but less effect on the mean aggregated yields. We investigated what aspects of the differences in the scenarios were most important for explaining the different simulated yield responses. For instance, precipitation changes in June were most important for corn and soybean in the eastern CSIRO grid boxes. We establish the spatial scale of climate change scenarios as an important uncertainty for climate change impacts analysis.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0034760369&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0034760369&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1023/A:1012297314857

DO - 10.1023/A:1012297314857

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:0034760369

VL - 51

SP - 131

EP - 172

JO - Climatic Change

JF - Climatic Change

SN - 0165-0009

IS - 2

ER -