A simulation model for policy decision analysis: A case of pandemic influenza on a university campus

O. M. Araz, T. Lant, J. W. Fowler, M. Jehn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Pandemic influenza preparedness plans strongly focus on efficient mitigation strategies including social distancing, logistics and medical response. These strategies are formed by multiple decision makers before a pandemic outbreak and during the pandemic in local communities, states and nation-wide. In this paper, we model the spread of pandemic influenza in a local community, a university, and evaluate the mitigation policies. Since the development of an appropriate vaccine requires a significant amount of time and available antiviral quantities can only cover a relatively small proportion of the population, university decision makers will first focus on non-pharmaceutical interventions. These interventions include social distancing and isolation. The disease spread is modelled as differential equations-based compartmental model. The system is simulated for multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing including suspending university operations, evacuating dorms and isolation of infected individuals on campus. Although the model is built based on the preparedness plan of one of the biggest universities in the world, Arizona State University, it can easily be generalized for other colleges and universities. The policies and the decisions are tested by several simulation runs and evaluations of the mitigation strategies are presented in the paper.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)89-100
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Simulation
Volume5
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2011

Fingerprint

Decision Analysis
Decision theory
Influenza
Simulation Model
Vaccines
Isolation
Logistics
Differential equations
Compartmental Model
Vaccine
Proportion
Policy
Universities
Cover
Differential equation
Evaluate
Evaluation
Model
Strategy
Simulation

Keywords

  • epidemiology
  • pandemic influenza
  • sensitivity analysis
  • simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Software
  • Modeling and Simulation

Cite this

A simulation model for policy decision analysis : A case of pandemic influenza on a university campus. / Araz, O. M.; Lant, T.; Fowler, J. W.; Jehn, M.

In: Journal of Simulation, Vol. 5, No. 2, 01.05.2011, p. 89-100.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{81316d36685d44b3aa86f5d468300578,
title = "A simulation model for policy decision analysis: A case of pandemic influenza on a university campus",
abstract = "Pandemic influenza preparedness plans strongly focus on efficient mitigation strategies including social distancing, logistics and medical response. These strategies are formed by multiple decision makers before a pandemic outbreak and during the pandemic in local communities, states and nation-wide. In this paper, we model the spread of pandemic influenza in a local community, a university, and evaluate the mitigation policies. Since the development of an appropriate vaccine requires a significant amount of time and available antiviral quantities can only cover a relatively small proportion of the population, university decision makers will first focus on non-pharmaceutical interventions. These interventions include social distancing and isolation. The disease spread is modelled as differential equations-based compartmental model. The system is simulated for multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing including suspending university operations, evacuating dorms and isolation of infected individuals on campus. Although the model is built based on the preparedness plan of one of the biggest universities in the world, Arizona State University, it can easily be generalized for other colleges and universities. The policies and the decisions are tested by several simulation runs and evaluations of the mitigation strategies are presented in the paper.",
keywords = "epidemiology, pandemic influenza, sensitivity analysis, simulation",
author = "Araz, {O. M.} and T. Lant and Fowler, {J. W.} and M. Jehn",
year = "2011",
month = "5",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1057/jos.2010.6",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "5",
pages = "89--100",
journal = "Journal of Simulation",
issn = "1747-7778",
publisher = "Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A simulation model for policy decision analysis

T2 - A case of pandemic influenza on a university campus

AU - Araz, O. M.

AU - Lant, T.

AU - Fowler, J. W.

AU - Jehn, M.

PY - 2011/5/1

Y1 - 2011/5/1

N2 - Pandemic influenza preparedness plans strongly focus on efficient mitigation strategies including social distancing, logistics and medical response. These strategies are formed by multiple decision makers before a pandemic outbreak and during the pandemic in local communities, states and nation-wide. In this paper, we model the spread of pandemic influenza in a local community, a university, and evaluate the mitigation policies. Since the development of an appropriate vaccine requires a significant amount of time and available antiviral quantities can only cover a relatively small proportion of the population, university decision makers will first focus on non-pharmaceutical interventions. These interventions include social distancing and isolation. The disease spread is modelled as differential equations-based compartmental model. The system is simulated for multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing including suspending university operations, evacuating dorms and isolation of infected individuals on campus. Although the model is built based on the preparedness plan of one of the biggest universities in the world, Arizona State University, it can easily be generalized for other colleges and universities. The policies and the decisions are tested by several simulation runs and evaluations of the mitigation strategies are presented in the paper.

AB - Pandemic influenza preparedness plans strongly focus on efficient mitigation strategies including social distancing, logistics and medical response. These strategies are formed by multiple decision makers before a pandemic outbreak and during the pandemic in local communities, states and nation-wide. In this paper, we model the spread of pandemic influenza in a local community, a university, and evaluate the mitigation policies. Since the development of an appropriate vaccine requires a significant amount of time and available antiviral quantities can only cover a relatively small proportion of the population, university decision makers will first focus on non-pharmaceutical interventions. These interventions include social distancing and isolation. The disease spread is modelled as differential equations-based compartmental model. The system is simulated for multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing including suspending university operations, evacuating dorms and isolation of infected individuals on campus. Although the model is built based on the preparedness plan of one of the biggest universities in the world, Arizona State University, it can easily be generalized for other colleges and universities. The policies and the decisions are tested by several simulation runs and evaluations of the mitigation strategies are presented in the paper.

KW - epidemiology

KW - pandemic influenza

KW - sensitivity analysis

KW - simulation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79955115194&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79955115194&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1057/jos.2010.6

DO - 10.1057/jos.2010.6

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:79955115194

VL - 5

SP - 89

EP - 100

JO - Journal of Simulation

JF - Journal of Simulation

SN - 1747-7778

IS - 2

ER -